A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
